Asylum accommodation and rents

Asylum accommodation is one of several local factors we looked at. Figures are people in Home Office accommodation per 1,000 residents, split into dispersal housing, which is ordinary housing including private rented homes, and hotels and other accommodation.

In the raw numbers, councils with more dispersal housing per head saw slightly faster rent growth between 2019 and 2024 (rank correlation 0.16). But dispersal housing is not placed at random. It is concentrated where housing is cheaper (rank correlation with house prices -0.29, as the chart next to it shows), and cheaper areas are also where rents tended to catch up over this period. That alone would produce the raw link, whether or not asylum housing had any effect on rents.

Once house prices, pay, population, migration, starting rents and region are allowed for, the dispersal link is about zero for 2019 to 2024 (-0.3 percentage points of rent growth for a council one standard deviation higher, range -1.5 to +1.0), and slightly negative but not clearly different from zero for 2015 to 2024 (-1.7, range -3.7 to +0.2). Hotels and other accommodation comes out slightly positive for 2019 to 2024 (+0.7, range 0.0 to +1.3), and about zero for 2015 to 2024 (+0.1, range -0.9 to +1.1). Some England-only versions are firmer: dispersal is clearly negative for 2015 to 2024 (-2.8, range -4.6 to -1.1, with new homes added), and hotels is clearly positive for 2019 to 2024 (+0.9, range +0.3 to +1.6, with Local Housing Allowance added). The estimates move either side of zero depending on the method, which is why we show all of them below rather than picking one.

Timing tells a similar story. Quarter by quarter, rents were if anything growing more slowly before dispersal housing rose, with no lasting change after. Hotels and other accommodation show a small positive link after increases, but it comes from London boroughs, disappears when London is left out, and the yearly version fails a basic timing check. Hotels aren't private rented homes, so any effect would be indirect.

Put together, these figures don't show a consistent link between asylum accommodation and rent growth, and there is good reason to think the raw link reflects where it is placed. That isn't proof of no effect anywhere: these methods pick up average patterns across many councils, not what happens in a particular street or town.

Frequently asked questions about asylum accommodation and rents

Does asylum accommodation raise local rents?

These figures don't show a consistent link. In the raw numbers, councils with more dispersal housing per head saw slightly faster rent growth between 2019 and 2024 (rank correlation 0.16). Once house prices, pay, population, migration, starting rents and region are allowed for, the dispersal link is about zero for 2019 to 2024, and not clearly different from zero for 2015 to 2024. The estimates move either side of zero depending on the method, so all of them are shown.

Why is there a raw link if there is no effect after controls?

Dispersal housing is not placed at random. It is concentrated where housing is cheaper, and cheaper areas are also where rents tended to catch up over this period. That alone would produce the raw link, whether or not asylum housing had any effect on rents.

What do hotels and other accommodation show?

Slightly positive for 2019 to 2024 (+0.7 points of rent growth per standard deviation, range 0.0 to +1.3) and about zero for 2015 to 2024. The small positive link after increases comes from London boroughs, disappears when London is left out, and the yearly version fails a basic timing check. Hotels aren't private rented homes, so any effect would be indirect.

Does this prove asylum housing has no effect on rents anywhere?

No. These methods pick up average patterns across many councils, not what happens in a particular street or town. They also can't rule out small effects.

How is asylum accommodation measured here?

People in Home Office accommodation per 1,000 residents, split into dispersal housing, which is ordinary housing including private rented homes, and hotels and other accommodation. Each council's figure is compared with how its rents changed over the same period.